Aiding and Abetting China?
On a daily basis, Linux Today gets submitted story contributions to stories that don't quite fit the editorial model of the site. Today was no exception, as I received a link to an interesting story from the BBC highlighting Microsoft's internal debate on whether to stop doing business with mainland China because of the continued abuses of human rights in that nation.
Since it didn't deal with Linux or open source, I didn't link to the story from LT. But it did get me to thinking... suppose Microsoft actually did decide to do the right thing and discontinue doing business with China? What would that mean for Linux? Perhaps a great deal--and possibly not all of it good.
First off, let's be clear: I don't really expect Redmond to drop China as a customer for something as noble as human rights and freedom of expression abuses, as the BBC story outlines. As cynical as I am, I expect that if Microsoft was considering such a move, the real motivation would be likely because it felt it was about to lose the market for other, more business-oriented reasons. Personally, I would hope that this line of thinking is wrong, but that's because my belief system tries to see the best in everyone. Realistically, I think any change in Microsoft-China relations will be a business decision, because I find it hard to believe that Redmond would drop 1.3 billion potential customers for anything else.
My suspicion is that the real reason for a pull-out are Redmond's two bugaboos: piracy and open source software. (Microsoft loves to imply that they are actually one and the same, but I think we're all smart enough to recognize that as a line of FUD.) In short, by illegitimate and legitimate means, Microsoft is about to get its butt kicked and wants to save face and retreat on "ethical" reasons.
For now, let's put aside Microsoft's true motivations and ask where would such a withdraw leave China? Actually, not in too bad of shape, no matter what Microsoft might think. Whether piracy is a big problem or not in China, you can bet your boots that if Redmond stopped commercial relations with Chinese customers, piracy sure as heck would become rampant very shortly thereafter. And on the legal side of the equation, China is already making moves towards shifting its IT infrastructure towards Linux. In fact, this is the reason that I think Microsoft is contemplating its “moral withdraw,” but admittedly I'm biased.
Those interested in maintaining legal IT setups would very likely migrate to Linux and other open source software. In fact, I would imagine the Chinese government would encourage them to do so. Which would put Linux in an interesting position indeed.
The positives seem self-evident: one of the world's most powerful nations advocating a shift to the Linux operating system. The demand for Linux and open source tools would be much higher, and we could start to see a strong rise in application development.
The negative: we're talking about China, a country that modeled its form of communism more on the Josef Stalin model than the Vladimir Lenin model, and continues to exercise strong-arm tactics in keeping its population in check. Linux, because of its free and open nature, would be used to potentially assist such a nation in keeping their nation going. Worse, since Linux surpasses other technologies in several areas, China's IT would become better than a lot of other nations still dependent on Microsoft.
Granted, I think Red Hat, Novell, and other commercial Linux vendors might follow Microsoft's "example" and eventually pull out of China. But even if they did, it wouldn't stop Linux deployments by Chinese vendors. Also, there could be a strong stigma in knowing that Linux was the operating system of choice for mainland China. Such a cutoff would probably embolden the Chinese developers to take away open software advances and not give back, since it is very unlikely the GPL could be enforced in such a hostile commercial and legal environment.
My optimistic goal would be that Linux' very open nature would be the thing that would help Chinese systems that there might be a better way of governing themselves in their grasp. But again, I admit to rampant idealism.
Would more Chinese reliance on Linux be a good thing or a bad thing for Linux? My gut says it's not going to be very bittersweet.
Probably helped Saddam Hussein, too. But, long term, if Chinese devs start hacking on a system for which the source code is freely and legally available, then ultimately that's good for freedom. The current Chinese government is going to be Stalinist whether it uses MS Windows or Free Software. However, I also don't see them forking too much from upstream. It doesn't make economic sense for them to do that. Rather, I suspect that you'll see a lot of Chinese "developers developers developers developers" :-) joining quite a few upstream source projects. One thing I've learned about Chinese culture is that it tends toward pragmatism. It's in the business interests of the Chinese government--hardly filled with fools--to leverage the worldwide developer talent that FOSS provides.
If this happens, and then it will be like the Russian developers joining today. Russian devs tend to be pretty damned good, given the constraints under which they had to work back in the day. I would imagine that Chinese devs would be the same way. Free Software can only benefit.
You are certain biased in more ways than one. I have been going to the US, the UK and China over the past few years. I can tell you that China is not Stalinist, communism is dead in China and everybody knows it. They are just maintaining stability while introducing changes to the legal and social structure. Currently they are more Fascist than anything.
And from what I see the US and the UK are moving down the same road from an opposite direction.
While the regime in China still calls itself "communist" so as to not undermine its... er... legitimacy, this is "not the communism your mother warned you about." Effectively, all the regime is now is a mafia with the legitimacy of a nation state. I agree with Mr. Sum that they are similar to fascist. Indeed there are a lot of parallels with Nazi Germany. The people of China have been fed enough patriotism that, were free and democratic elections held tomorrow, they would vote the communists right back into power.
Nonetheless, the author's concern has merit. Linux, which is rightfully called "communistic" by some of its nay-sayers, fit's right in with their ideology, and the regime will use it for evil more than good.
I can picture the US warship stuck in the Taiwan straight unable to move while they troubleshoot the latest General Protection Fault, while the incoming Chinese missile (running Red Flag Embedded Linux) homes in...
Changhua, Don't make fun of chinese and Red Flag Linux, u said a lot off-topics but little do (improvements) that i estimate. although i don't like red flag, and actually Chinese culture is that it tends toward pragmatism, this is a process, lots of people need to make more money than doing non-profit things in the quick developement of china's economy.
It is a big challenge for me to augue in political topics.
Changhua does shock me by saying "I agree with Mr. Sum that they are similar to fascist. Indeed there are a lot of parallels with Nazi Germany. The people of China have been fed enough patriotism that, were free and democratic elections held tomorrow, they would vote the communists right back into power."
First,thank you guys for understanding "it tends toward pragmatism",everybody in China thinks and acts on pragmatism.Thus sometimes you can see that Chinese people are cold in public event because it is mistakenly supposed to be beyond their reach and from Pragmatism point of view,it is ignored.And people focus on making mokey to keep themselves alive and secure.
Talking about fascist and Nazi,it is not the case.China in nature remains in its traditional way of governing for thousands of years.People inside&outside the government have no idea of another way of governing whatever you call it democracy or Nazi.People are learning to make it a better place but have a long way to go.
Were communists voted into power,the reason is not "The people of China have been fed enough patriotism" but people don't know another candidate because currently civil organisation is strictly monitored by the government. If democratic election happens in China there must be another active party then people will vote on pragmatism.
Changhua's words are warningful that education and media industry in China should be opened to truth.
Your comments about the Chinese government are about a government that no longer exists. The current Chinese government seem to be very responsive to the opinions expressed by its citizens. I think the Chinese people like the government they have now. In my travels in China, I have never seen Linux being used by anyone and I've seen a lot of PCs in China. I think Windows is used there for two reasons: 1. Windows has excellent Chinese language support. Unlike Linux, you don't need English to administrate it. 2. Windows either comes with the hardware or is virtually free due to piracy. This removes Linux's main advantage. These two reasons will keep Windows popular in Chine regardless of what Microsoft does. I don't think most Chinese care whether Microsoft is ethical or not. They are used to ignoring politics.